SCEC Award Number 19187 View PDF
Proposal Category Workshop Proposal
Proposal Title Workshop on evaluation of seismic hazard models with fragile geologic features
Investigator(s)
Name Organization
Mark Stirling University of Otago (New Zealand) Michael Oskin University of California, Davis
Other Participants Approximately 40 attendees expected. Invited attendees include: Jim Brune, Lisa Grant-Ludwig, Matt Purvance, Greg Balco, Norm Abrahamson, Julian Lozos, Glenn Biasi, Sean Gallen, Marin Clark, Seugli Moon, Graeme McVerry, Chris Van Houtte, Russ Van Dissen, Chris Madugo, Albert Kottke, John Anderson, and Jack Baker.
SCEC Priorities 4b, 5b, 5c SCEC Groups GM, Geology, EFP
Report Due Date 10/09/2019 Date Report Submitted 11/15/2019
Project Abstract
 This report summarises the results of a workshop held in conjunction with the annual meeting of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) on 8 September 2019. The half-day workshop was held in recognition of the growing body of work on the use of fragile geologic features (FGFs) to evaluate probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) models, and emergence of different methods of application and evaluation. The actual workshop goal was to determine the state of the art of FGF-PSH model evaluation, and identify the work and resources needed in order to achieve defensible evaluation methods for future industry application. While FGF research has long sat in the fringe of practical hazards science, recent industry-funded efforts in New Zealand and California have been focused on developing defensible methods for using FGFs to evaluate and modify PSH models.

For our workshop we assembled a group of 44 scientists either possessing experience in studies of FGFs, or not currently involved in FGF work but possessing relevant expertise. The main areas of expertise were: geology and surficial processes relevant to the formation and identification of FGFs; alternative methods for fragility and age estimation; statistical methods of PSH model evaluation; and experience with the setting of guidelines criteria. The workshop was consequently subdivided into the following sessions: (1) geomorphology and age estimation; (2) fragility estimation; (3) evaluation of seismic hazard models; and (4) ethical considerations.
Intellectual Merit This half-day workshop was held in recognition of the growing body of work on the use of fragile geologic features (FGFs) to evaluate probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) models, and emergence of different methods of application and evaluation. The workshop goal was to determine the state of the art of FGF-PSH model evaluation, and identify the work and resources needed in order to achieve defensible evaluation methods for future industry application.
Broader Impacts Fragile geologic features provide the only direct, long-term constraint on shaking hazard. This workshop was aimed at growing the community of researchers focussing on FGF research.
Exemplary Figure No figures included