SCEC Award Number 23185 View PDF
Proposal Category Collaborative Proposal (Data Gathering and Products)
Proposal Title Continued Development of OpenSHA to Support Next-Generation Earthquake Rupture Forecasts and Facilitate User Adoption
Name Organization
Yehuda Ben-Zion University of Southern California Kevin Milner University of Southern California Edward Field United States Geological Survey
Other Participants
SCEC Priorities 4c, 4e, 5a SCEC Groups EFP, GM, EEII
Report Due Date 03/15/2024 Date Report Submitted 01/26/2024
Project Abstract
Development in 2023 was focused on completing the 2023 update to the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23). NSHM23 was published in December, 2023 (Petersen et al., 2023; Field et al., 2023; Milner and Field, 2023), and the final version of the model was computed in September, 2023. The model underwent extensive review by a participatory review panel led by Tom Jordan (Jordan et al., 2023). This model represents a major step forward in standardizing earthquake rate models across all active crustal faults in the Western U.S., and more properly accounting for uncertainty in fault connectivity and b-values.

Additionally, we supported CyberShake Study 22.12 (completed in 2023), producing the hard curve and map products.

We continued to support OpenSHA desktop applications, which were downloaded nearly 3,000 times in 2023.
Intellectual Merit The work described in this report helps achieve SCEC’s goal of integrating data and models into usable products that also support continued research. Specifically, it synthesized many studies conducted with SCEC support (e.g., fault slip rate studies, paleoseismic studies, and other research) into a high profile model: the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model.
Broader Impacts OpenSHA, and its implementation of the UCERF3 models, continues to be a valuable tool for the SCEC community. OpenSHA is used by engineers, researchers, and students, and was downloaded nearly 3,000 times in 2023.

This project (as well as work done in prior years) constitutes a significant portion of the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM23). NSHM23 is a high impact, flagship model of the USGS that will be broadly used by practitioners.
Exemplary Figure Figure 1
National Seismic Hazard Model (2023). Map displays the likelihood of damaging earthquake shaking in the United States over the next 100 years.
Sources/Usage: USGS (Public Domain)