Progress of CSEP China

Yongxian Zhang, Huaizhong Yu, Shengfeng Zhang, Yue Liu, Hui Wang, Xiaotao Zhang, Chen Yu, Zhengyi Yuan, Chaozhong Hu, Guiping Liu, Jianchang Zheng, Jun Zhong, Gang Li, Xiaodong Zhang, Xiqiang Liu, Zijian Cui, Zhenyu Zou, Zhengshuai Zhang, Huajian Cui, Dongmei Li, Guoyi Li, Xiaoyi Fan, & Zonghui Dai

Submitted August 16, 2021, SCEC Contribution #11657, 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting Poster #268

Due to the impact of COVID-19, we applied to the Ministry of Science and Technology for one year’s extension of the project in July 2020. Till July 2021, our application was approved by the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the execution period of our project changed from November 2019 to October 2022 to November 2019 to October 2023.

Till now, the original planned mission and inviting foreign experts to domestic academic exchanges and software installation work has not been completed. However, the data collection, module research and development, CSEP platform building have made varying degrees of progress.
Part of the hardware platform CSEP China Test Center have been completed, the office space CSEP China Inspection Center is arranged, the hardware platform equipment scheme of CSEP system is determined, and the test environment of CSEP module is preliminarily built.

In the aspect of data collection, such as the seismic catalogue, focal mechanism, geological model, velocity model, deformation model of the China Seismic Experimental Site have been collected, and the data assimilation of some models has been completed, which is ready to be entered into the subsequent database.

On the research and development of the modules, the relevant prediction methods have been investigated, LURR, SV and ETAS algorithm are basically realized and are applied into earthquake study and forecasting, the comprehensive probability prediction method of earthquake based on Bayesian formula is established, and the three efficiency test models of R value, ROC and Molchan test are developed, which lays the foundation for opening CSEP earthquake predictability test website. The framework of the evaluation specification for earthquake prediction methods applied in China Seismic Experimental Site is preliminarily established. So far, 21 journal articles have been published, 5 talks have been presented for the international conferences. Overall, although affected by the epidemic, the project is going smoothly.

Zhang, Y., Yu, H., Zhang, S., Liu, Y., Wang, H., Zhang, X., Yu, C., Yuan, Z., Hu, C., Liu, G., Zheng, J., Zhong, J., Li, G., Zhang, X., Liu, X., Cui, Z., Zou, Z., Zhang, Z., Cui, H., Li, D., Li, G., Fan, X., & Dai, Z. (2021, 08). Progress of CSEP China. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting.

Related Projects & Working Groups
Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)