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Displacement hazard from distributed ruptures in strike-slip earthquakes

Alba M. Rodriguez Padilla, & Michael E. Oskin

Under Review May 31, 2022, SCEC Contribution #11869

Widespread distributed fracturing during earthquakes threatens infrastructure and lifelines. We combine high-resolution rupture maps from the five major surface-rupturing strike-slip earthquakes in southern California and northern Mexico since 1992 to incorporate the displacements produced by distributed ruptures into a probabilistic displacement hazard analysis framework. Through analysis of the spatial distribution of mapped ruptures and displacements for each of these events, we develop a magnitude-dependent expression for the probability per unit area of finding a distributed rupture that accommodates a displacement that exceeds a displacement threshold at a given distance away from the principal fault. Our model is best applied to estimating expected distributed displacements for strike-slip earthquakes, similar to those analyzed, with widespread ruptures across immature fault zones.

Rodriguez Padilla, A. M., & Oskin, M. E. (2022). Displacement hazard from distributed ruptures in strike-slip earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters, (under review).