Probabilities for jumping fault segment stepovers

Bruce E. Shaw, & James H. Dieterich

Published 2007, SCEC Contribution #1385

Seismic hazard analysis relies heavily on the segmentation of faults.
The ability of ruptures to break multiple segments has a big impact on
estimated hazard. Current practice for estimating multiple segment
breakage relies on panels of experts voting on their opinions for
each case. Here, we explore the probability of elastodynamic ruptures
jumping segment stepovers in numerical simulations of segmented fault
systems. We find a simple functional form for the probability of jumping a segment stepover as a function of stepover distance:
an exponential falloff with distance. We suggest this simple parameterization of jumping probabilities, combined with sparse
observational data to fix the lengthscale parameter, as a new
approach to estimating multisegment earthquake hazard.

Shaw, B. E., & Dieterich, J. H. (2007). Probabilities for jumping fault segment stepovers. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L01307. doi: 10.1029/2006GL027980.