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Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion

Ruth A. Harris, Michael Barall, Dudley J. Andrews, Benchun Duan, Shuo Ma, Eric M. Dunham, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Yoshihiro Kaneko, Yuko Kase, Brad T. Aagaard, David D. Oglesby, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Thomas C. Hanks, & Norman A. Abrahamson

Published 2011, SCEC Contribution #1473

Most SRL papers don't have abstracts. Here is the beginning of the Introduction instead:

Large earthquakes strike infrequently and close-in recordings
are uncommon. This situation makes it difficult to predict the
ground motion very close to earthquake-generating faults, if
the prediction is to be based on readily available observations. A solution might be to cover the Earth with seismic instruments so that one could rely on the data from previous events to predict future shaking. However, even in the case of complete seismic data coverage for hundreds of years, there would still be one type of earthquake that would be difficult to predict: those very rare earthquakes that produce very large ground motion.

Harris, R. A., Barall, M., Andrews, D. J., Duan, B., Ma, S., Dunham, E. M., Gabriel, A., Kaneko, Y., Kase, Y., Aagaard, B. T., Oglesby, D. D., Ampuero, J., Hanks, T. C., & Abrahamson, N. A. (2011). Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion. Seismological Research Letters, 82(5), 638-644. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.82.5.638.