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The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities

Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian J. Werner, Warner Marzocchi, Thomas H. Jordan, Yosihiko Ogata, David D. Jackson, Sum Mak, David A. Rhoades, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Naoshi Hirata, Maria Liukis, Philip J. Maechling, Anne Strader, Matteo Taroni, Stefan Wiemer, Jeremy D. Zechar, & Jiancang Zhuang

Published June 13, 2018, SCEC Contribution #8036

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP's goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and to improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at the global scale, and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new, and sometimes surprising, insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.

Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Jordan, T. H., Ogata, Y., Jackson, D. D., Mak, S., Rhoades, D. A., Gerstenberger, M. C., Hirata, N., Liukis, M., Maechling, P. J., Strader, A., Taroni, M., Wiemer, S., Zechar, J. D., & Zhuang, J. (2018). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1305-1313. doi: 10.1785/0220180053.

Related Projects & Working Groups
CSEP, Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)