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Conveners: Max Werner (Bristol), Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ Potsdam), Tom Jordan (SCEC/USC), Andy Michael (USGS), Morgan Page (USGS)
Dates:September 6, 2014 (10:00 – 18:00)
Location: Hilton Palm Springs Resort, California, USA
Attendees: By invitation only
SCEC Workshop Report: 14148

OVERVIEW: The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), operated by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), provides a research cyber-infrastructure for independent and prospective testing of earthquake forecasts. As such, CSEP is well situated to evaluate operational forecasting models of earthquake potential and ground motions by the USGS, GEM and other international governmental and non-governmental organizations. The ongoing development and implementation of operational models, however, entail new requirements for CSEP’s infrastructure, methodology and experiment design.

The purposes of this workshop are: (i) to assess the evolving needs of agencies for CSEP-based testing of OEF and seismic hazard models, (ii) to disseminate and review recent CSEP and GEM Testing & Evaluation (T&E) results, (iii) to assess the adequacy of CSEP’s current methodology and infrastructure in light of evolving needs, and (iv) to gather community input on the next steps for testing OEF and seismic hazard models.

The workshop will bring together CSEP personnel, agency representatives, and scientists interested in the scientific and operational aspects of earthquake and ground motion forecasting and testing. This one-day workshop will include sessions on the following topics:

  1. Status and requirements for OEF and seismic hazard models
  2. Current CSEP capabilities and review of earthquake forecasts under testing
  3. Status and requirements for the short-term UCERF3 and GEM Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) models
  4. Results from short-term and global CSEP experiments
  5. Results from the retrospective Canterbury, New Zealand, experiment
  6. Operationalization: real-time forecasting and data considerations
  7. Status and requirements for seismic hazard models (GMPE’s, IPE’s, NSHMP)
  8. Review of seismic hazard models under CSEP and GEM T&E testing
  9. Discussion, recommendations and next steps for future CSEP experiments

PARTICIPANTS: Harley Benz (USGS Denver), Peter Bird (UCLA), Mike Blanpied (USGS), Emily Brodsky (UCSC), Camilla Cattania (GFZ Potsdam), Hamed Ebrahimian (UCSD), Bill Ellsworth (USGS), Ned Field (USGS), Matt Gerstenberger (GNS Science), Jeanne Hardebeck (USGS), David Harte (GNS Science), Egill Hauksson (Caltech), Marcus Herrmann (ETH Zürich), Dave Jackson (UCLA), Lucy Jones (USGS), Tom Jordan (USC), Yan Kagan (UCLA), Takao Kumazawa (Institute of Statistical Mathematics (Japan)), Masha Liukis (SCEC), Andrea Llenos (USGS), Phil Maechling (SCEC / USC), Sam Mak (GFZ-Potsdam), Warner Marzocchi (INGV), Kevin Milner (SCEC), Shunichi Nomura (The Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Yosi Ogata (Institute of Statistical Mathematics), Takahiro Omi (University of Tokyo (Japan)), Morgan Page (USGS Pasadena), Peter Powers (USGS), David Rhoades (GNS Science), Margarita Segou (CNRS), Bruce Shaw (LDEO), Ross Stein (USGS), Anne Strader (UCLA), Nicholas van der Elst (LDEO), Max Werner (Bristol), Sayokoi Yokoi (ERI University of Tokyo), Jiancang Zhuang (ISM)

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.


10:00-10:10 Welcome, Introductions, Meeting Objectives M. Werner / D. Schorlemmer
  Overview of OEF and CSEP  
10:10-10:25 CSEP Overview and Status M. Werner
10:25-10:35 The Liaison between OEF and CSEP in Italy W. Marzocchi
10:35-10:50 OEF and CSEP in New Zealand M. Gerstenberger
10:50-11:05 OEF and CSEP in Japan H. Tsuruoka / Y. Ogata
11:05-11:15 Status and Requirements for OEF in the US M. Blanpied
11:15-11:25 Evaluating UCERF2 and NSHMP D. Schorlemmer
11:25-11:35 OEF and CSEP in California E. Field
11:35-12:05 Discussion
  • How adequate is CSEP's infrastructure for evaluating OEF models?
12:05-12:15 Immediate aftershock forecasting after a strong earthquake T. Omi
12:15-12:30 ComCat Overview and Real-Time Data H. Benz
12:30-13:00 Panel Discussion
  • How should real-time data uncertainties be handled in OEF models and their evaluation?
  • What products/features are/should be available in ComCat that help facilitate OEF and CSEP testing?
H. Benz / E. Hauksson / E. Field / Y. Ogata
13:00-14:00 Lunch  
  GEM, Global Experiments, and Ground Motion  
14:00-14:10 Perspectives on Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecasting T. Jordan
14:10-14:20 GEM Overview and Perspectives on Testing and Evaluation R. Stein
14:20-14:30 Assessing Annual Global M6+ Seismicity Forecasts W. Marzocchi
14:30-14:40 GEM’s GEAR Models P. Bird
14:40-15:10 Panel Discussion
  • How should global experiments be conducted?
  • How can CSEP’s testing methodology be improved?
D. Jackson / D. Rhoades / M. Werner
15:10-15:20 Forecasting Focal Mechanisms and Evaluating Forecast Skill Y. Kagan
15:20-15:40 Testing Ground-Motion Models and Seismic Maps S. Mak
15:40-16:10 Discussion
  • How should GEM and USGS ground motion forecasts be evaluated within CSEP and GEM’s Testing and Evaluation group?
  • Is CSEP ready to evaluate hazard maps?
16:10-16:20 Break  
  Retrospective Canterbury Experiment  
16:20-16:25 Overview and Motivation of Experiment M. Gerstenberger
16:25-16:30 Overview of Coulomb-Based Models C. Cattania
16:30-16:45 Preliminary Results W. Marzocchi
16:45-17:00 Panel Discussion
  • How are physics-based models performing?
  • How should retrospective CSEP experiments be conducted to support OEF efforts?
  • How does real-time data affect forecasts?
C. Cattania / M. Gerstenberger / W. Marzocchi
  New Directions  
17:00-17:30 Panel Discussion: CSEP and Induced Seismicity E. Brodsky / B. Ellsworth / A. Llenos
17:30-17:55 Panel Discussion: CSEP and Paleo- and Simulator-Based Rupture D. Jackson / E. Field
17:55-18:00 Wrap-Up and Next Steps M. Werner / D. Schorlemmer
18:00 Adjourn  

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