pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers

William H. Savran, José A. Bayona, Pablo Iturrieta, Khawaja M. Asim, Han Bao, Kirsty Bayliss, Marcus Herrmann, Danijel Schorlemmer, Philip J. Maechling, & Maximilian J. Werner

Submitted January 28, 2022, SCEC Contribution #11740

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is an open and global community
whose mission is to accelerate earthquake predictability research through rigorous testing of probabilistic
earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. pyCSEP supports this mission by providing opensource
implementations of useful tools for evaluating earthquake forecasts. pyCSEP is a Python package
that contains the following modules: (1) earthquake catalog access and processing, (2) representations
of probabilistic earthquake forecasts, (3) statistical tests for evaluating earthquake forecasts, and (4)
visualization routines and various other utilities. Most significantly, pyCSEP contains several statistical
tests needed to evaluate earthquake forecasts, which can be forecasts expressed as expected earthquake
rates in space-magnitude bins or specified as large sets of simulated catalogs (which includes candidate
models for governmental operational earthquake forecasting). To showcase how pyCSEP can be used
to evaluate earthquake forecasts, we have provided a reproducibility package that contains all the
components required to recreate the figures published in this article. We recommend that interested
readers work through the reproducibility package alongside this manuscript. By providing useful tools to
earthquake forecast modelers and facilitating an open-source software community, we hope to broaden
the impact of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and further promote
earthquake forecasting research.

Citation
Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Iturrieta, P., Asim, K. M., Bao, H., Bayliss, K., Herrmann, M., Schorlemmer, D., Maechling, P. J., & Werner, M. J. (2022). pyCSEP: A Python Toolkit for Earthquake Forecast Developers. Seismological Research Letters: Electronic Seismologist, (submitted).


Related Projects & Working Groups
CSEP, Earthquake Forecasting and Predictability (EFP)