wsavran | Southern California Earthquake Center

William H. Savran

Southern California Earthquake Center
University of Southern California

Software Engineer

Expertise: Ground Motion Simulations, Statistical Seismology, High Performance Computing

About Me Publications

William started his SCEC career as a SURE intern in 2011 working with Dr. John Louie. His research focused on developing realistic models of small-scale heterogeneities in upper crust and simulating earthquake ground motions through these complex models. He completed his Bachelor's in Geophysics at University of Nevada, Reno in 2012.

His research as a SCEC intern became the focus of this Ph.D. that he completed in 2017 working with Dr. Kim Olsen and Dr. Steve Day in a joint-doctoral program between San Diego State University and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. During his Ph.D., he became passionate about software development and using software to ensure reproducible scientific results.

William began working at SCEC in January of 2018 as a research programmer for the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. Within CSEP, William is responsible for researching new ideas for evaluating earthquake forecasting models, and implementing these ideas as tools to allow for unbiased evaluations of earthquake forecasting models. This research aims to improve our capability to forecast earthquakes and to instill confidence in the merits of earthquake forecasting.

SCEC Participation

Current Roles

SCEC Staff (2018 - Present)

Past Roles

SCEC Intern (2011)

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Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Page, M. T., Savran, W. H., & van der Elst, N. J. (2021). Improvements to the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast ETAS Model (UCERF3-ETAS). The Seismic Record, (awaiting publication). SCEC Contribution 11677

Bayona, J. A., Savran, W. H., & Werner, M. J. (2021, 08). Are regionally calibrated earthquake forecast models more informative than global models? First results from California and Italy. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11537

Savran, W. H., Bayona, J. A., Werner, M. J., & Maechling, P. J. (2021, 08). Reproducible earthquake forecasting experiments with pyCSEP. Poster Presentation at 2021 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 11535

Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Schorlemmer, D., & Maechling, P. J. (2021). pyCSEP: A Python Package For Earthquake Forecast Developers. The Journal of Open Source Software, (in preparation). SCEC Contribution 11017

Bayona Viveros, J. A., Savran, W. H., Rhoades, D. A., & Werner, M. J. (2021). Prospective evaluation of multiplicative hybrid earthquake forecasting models in California. Geophysical Journal International, (in preparation). SCEC Contribution 11011

Savran, W. H., Khawaja, A. M., Werner, M. J., Maechling, P. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Schorlemmer, D., Jordan, T. H., & Ben-Zion, Y. (2020, 08). PyCSEP: An Open-Source Toolkit for Evaluating Earthquake Forecast Models . Poster Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10342

Savran, W. H. (2020, 08). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Oral Presentation at 2020 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 10341

Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2019). Ground motion simulation and validation of the 2008 Chino Hills earthquake in scattering media. Geophysical Journal International, (awaiting publication). SCEC Contribution 9936

Werner, M. J., Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., & Yu, J. (2019, 08). An Update on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9842

Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Field, E. H., Milner, K. R., Michael, A. J., Jordan, T. H., & Maechling, P. J. (2019, 08). Pseudo-Prospective Evaluation of Operational UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9576

Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M. T., & Werner, M. J. (2019, 08). Operational earthquake forecasting during the M6.4 Searles Valley and M7.1 Ridgecrest sequence using the UCERF3-ETAS model—evaluation and lessons learned. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9401

Shatz, A. C., Pastorino, J., Santa Maria, J. T., Lu, Y., Gugsa, Y. A., Molina, D. E., Savran, W. H., & Jordan, T. H. (2019, 08). Earthquake Forecasting Using Machine Learning Algorithms. Poster Presentation at 2019 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 9313

Savran, W. H., Maechling, P. J., Werner, M. J., Jordan, T. H., Schorlemmer, D., Rhoades, D. A., Marzocchi, W., Yu, J., & Vidale, J. E. (2018, 08). The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability version 2.0 (CSEP2.0): New Capabilities in Earthquake Forecasting and Testing . Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8805

Maechling, P. J., Bielak, J., Callaghan, S., Cui, Y., Field, E. H., Goulet, C. A., Graves, R. W., Jordan, T. H., Milner, K. R., Olsen, K. B., Roten, D., Savran, W. H., Silva, F., Su, M., Taborda, R., & Vidale, J. E. (2018, 08). The SCEC Software Ecosystem for Earthquake System Science Research. Poster Presentation at 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 8582

Taborda, R., Olsen, K. B., Graves, R. W., Silva, F., Khoshnevis, N., Savran, W. H., Roten, D., Shi, Z., Goulet, C. A., Bielak, J., Maechling, P. J., Cui, Y., & Jordan, T. H. (2018, 06). High-frequency simulations: Verification and validation of the M5.1 La Habra, CA, earthquake. Oral Presentation at 11th National Conference in Earthquake Engineering. SCEC Contribution 7990

Savran, W. H., Olsen, K. B., & Day, S. M. (2017, 08). Generating 10 Hz deterministic broadband ground motions using kinematic source descriptions. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7732

Inbal, A., Kong, Q., Allen, R. M., & Savran, W. H. (2017, 08). Earthquake Monitoring with the MyShake Global Smartphone Seismic Network. Poster Presentation at 2017 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 7570

Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2016, 08). Kinematic source generation based on fractal fault geometries. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6864

Cui, Y., Roten, D., Wang, P., Mu, D., Pearson, C., Withers, K. B., Savran, W. H., Olsen, K. B., Day, S. M., & Hwu, W. (2016, 08). Recent Improvements to AWP-ODC-GPU supported by Blue Waters PAID Program. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6711

Taborda, R., Olsen, K. B., Graves, R. W., Silva, F., Khoshnevis, N., Savran, W. H., Roten, D., Shi, Z., Goulet, C. A., Bielak, J., Maechling, P. J., Cui, Y., & Jordan, T. H. (2016, 09). Verification and Validation of High-Frequency (fmax = 5 Hz) Ground Motion Simulations of the 2014 M 5.1 La Habra, California, earthquake. Poster Presentation at 2016 SCEC Annual Meeting. SCEC Contribution 6475

Savran, W. H., Louie, J. N., Flinchum, B., Pullammanappallil, S. K., & Pancha, A. (2012). Spatial statistics of the Clark County Parcel Map, trial geotechnical models, and effects on earthquake ground motions in Las Vegas Valley. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, (submitted). SCEC Contribution 1595

Savran, W. H., Louie, J. N., Flinchum, B., Pullammanappallil, S. K., & Pancha, A. (2012). Spatial statistics of the Clark County Parcel Map, trial geotechnical models, and effects on earthquake ground motions in Las Vegas Valley. Presentation at 2012 Symposium on Engineering Geology and Geotechnical Engineering. SCEC Contribution 1536

Savran, W. H., Flinchum, B., Plank, G., Dudley, C., Prina, N., & Louie, J. N. (2011). Comparing Physics-Based Next-Level ShakeZoning Computations with USGS ShakeMap Statistics for Southern Nevada Earthquake Scenarios. Oral Presentation at NWRA Symposium 2011. SCEC Contribution 1474

Milner, K. R., Field, E. H., Savran, W. H., Page, M. T., & Jordan, T. H. (2020). Operational Earthquake Forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, Earthquake Sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS Model. Seismological Research Letters, 91(3), 1567-1578. doi: 10.1785/0220190294. SCEC Contribution 9937

Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2020). Kinematic Rupture Generator Based on 3‐D Spontaneous Rupture Simulations Along Geometrically Rough Faults. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(10). doi: 10.1029/2020JB019464. SCEC Contribution 10083

Savran, W. H., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Rhoades, D. A., Jackson, D. D., Milner, K., Field, E., & Michael, A. (2020). Pseudoprospective Evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS Forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 110(4), 1799-1817. doi: 10.1785/0120200026. SCEC Contribution 10082

Cattania, C., Werner, M. J., Marzocchi, W., Hainzl, S., Rhoades, D., Gerstenberger, M., Liukis, M., Savran, W., Christophersen, A., Helmstetter, A., Jimenez, A., Steacy, S., & Jordan, T. H. (2018). The Forecasting Skill of Physics‐Based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence. Seismological Research Letters, 89(4), 1238-1250. doi: 10.1785/0220180033. SCEC Contribution 8045

Savran, W. H., Olsen, K. B., & Day, S. M. (2017, 04). Kinematic Rupture Generator Based on 3D Rough Fault Dynamic Rupture Simulations. Poster Presentation at Seismological Society of America. SCEC Contribution 7278

Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2016). Model for Small-Scale Crustal Heterogeneity in Los Angeles Basin Based on Inversion of Sonic Log Data. Geophysical Journal International, 205, 856-863. SCEC Contribution 6178

Savran, W. H., & Olsen, K. B. (2014). Deterministic simulation of the Mw5.4 Chino Hills event with frequency-dependent attenuation, heterogeneous velocity structure and realistic source model. Seismological Research Letters, 85(2), 498. SCEC Contribution 2001

Flinchum, B., Louie, J. N., Smith, K. D., Savran, W. H., Pullammanappallil, S. K., & Pancha, A. (2014). Validating Nevada ShakeZoning Predictions of Las Vegas Basin Response against 1992 Little Skull Mountain Earthquake Records. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(1). doi: 10.1785/0120130059. SCEC Contribution 1594

Savran, W. H., Olsen, K. B., & Jacobsen, B. H. (2013, 9). Statistics of velocity structure in the Los Angeles Area. Poster Presentation at SCEC Annual Meeting 2013. SCEC Contribution 1892

Olsen, K. B., Savran, W. H., & Jacobsen, B. H. (2013). Ground motion prediction from low-velocity sediments including statistical models of inhomogeneities in Southern California basins. Seismological Research Letters, 84(2), 334. SCEC Contribution 1860

Flinchum, B. A., Savran, W. H., Smith, K. D., Louie, J. N., Pullammanappallil, S. K., & Pancha, A. (2012, 10). Validation of Las Vegas basin response to the 1992 Little Skull Mtn. earthquake as predicted by physics-based Nevada ShakeZoning computations. Presentation at 2012 EGGE Conference. SCEC Contribution 1537

Last updated Sep 13, 2021.

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