Home  /  SCEC Workshops  /  SCEC CSEP/USGS/GEM Workshop: Epistemic Uncertainties in Earthquake and Ground Motion Forecasts

SCEC CSEP/USGS/GEM Workshop: Epistemic Uncertainties in Earthquake and Ground Motion Forecasts

Conveners: Max Werner (Bristol), Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ), Tom Jordan (USC), Andy Michael (USGS), Morgan Page (USGS), Marco Pagani (GEM)
Dates: September 12, 2015 (09:00 – 17:00)
Location: Hilton Palm Springs Resort, Palm Springs, CA
Attendance: If interested in attending, please contact conveners
SCEC Award: 15166

OVERVIEW: This 1-day workshop is organized jointly by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and representatives of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation. The goals of the workshop are to strengthen collaborations on the evaluation of earthquake and ground-motion forecasting methods, to assess new CSEP results and to continue reshaping CSEP’s modus operandi to better address the evolving needs of the community. Several major themes will be covered. First, Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) and its evaluation will be a major focus in light of on-going efforts in the US, in New Zealand, and in Italy. Second, the implications of epistemic uncertainty for forecasting (including automated ensemble modeling) and CSEP testing methods will be addressed. A third theme will be the predictability of fluid injection-induced seismicity. Finally, we will focus on recent research on hazard models testing and evaluation.

The workshop will bring together CSEP personnel, agency representatives, and scientists interested in the scientific and operational aspects of earthquake and ground motion forecasting and testing. This one-day workshop will include sessions on the following topics:

  1. Overview of CSEP, OEF and hazard models:
    • Overview of CSEP and recent results
    • USGS perspectives on OEF, hazard and CSEP
    • GEM overview and perspectives on earthquake and ground motion forecasting and evaluating
    • CSEP and OEF in New Zealand, Japan, Italy and China
  2. Evaluating earthquake forecast models:
    • Evaluating USGS models: UCERF2/3, the NSHMP and U3-ETAS
    • Evaluating GEM’s GEAR1 models and other global experiments
    • Evaluating physics-based and statistical OEF candidate models: the retrospective Canterbury, New Zealand, experiment
    • Status of prototype External Earthquake Forecast and Prediction (EFP) experiments: M8 and QuakeFinder algorithms
  3. Seismic hazard models testing:
    • Methods for testing and evaluating hazard models
    • Ground-motion forecasts of USGS and GEM models
    • Results from GEM testing of GMPEs and IPEs
  4. Injection-induced seismicity
    • USGS perspectives on induced hazard estimation
    • Overview of statistical and geomechanical forecast models of induced seismicity
    • The Salton Sea CSEP experiment prototype
    • Developing new experiments to evaluate induced seismicity forecasts

PARTICIPANTS: Celine Beauval (Grenoble), Greg Beroza (Stanford), Thomas Beutin (GFZ Potsdam), Mike Blanpied (USGS), Annemarie Christophersen (GNS New Zealand), Harmony Colella (ASU), Bill Ellsworth (USGS), Edward (Ned) Field (USGS), Naoshi Hirata (ERI), Dave Jackson (UCLA), Changsheng Jiang (CEA), Thomas Jordan (USC), Yan Kagan (UCLA), Masha Liukis (USC), Andrea Llenos (USGS), Philip Maechling (USC), Sam Mak (GFZ), Warner Marzocchi (INGV), Andy Michael (USGS), Kevin Milner (USC), Morgan Moschetti (USGS), Yosi Ogata (ISM), Takahiro Omi (ISM), Marco Pagani (GEM), Morgan Page (USGS), David Rhoades (GNS), Danijel Schorlemmer (GFZ Potsdam), Bruce Shaw (Columbia), Mark Stirling (GNS), Anne Strader (UCLA), Matteo Taroni (INGV), Nicholas van der Elst (USGS), Debbie Weiser (USGS/UCLA), Max Werner (Bristol University), Yongxian Zhang (CEA China)

SEPTEMBER 12, 2015

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the title of the presentation.
PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

09:00 Welcome, Introductions, Meeting Objectives (PDF, 81.2kB) M. Werner and D.Schorlemmer
  CSEP & OEF: Overview and Status
Moderator: D. Schorlemmer Reporter: M. Liukis
09:10 CSEP Overview and Status (PDF, 2.7MB) M. Werner
09:35 Current CSEP & OEF Activities in New Zealand (PDF, 2.0MB) D. Rhoades
09:50 Five-year Japanese earthquake predictability experiment with multiple runs since 2009 including the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and the 2014 Northern Nagano earthquake N. Hirata
10:05 Status and Challenges for Implementing CSEP in China C. Jiang
10:20 Operational Earthquake (and Loss) Forecast in Italy: The CSEP Legacy and Future Perspectives W. Marzocchi
10:35 Status of OEF Development at the USGS (PDF, 2.9MB) M. Blanpied
10:45 Testing UCERF2 (and UCERF3?) D. Schorlemmer
10:50 Break  
  OEF, Aftershocks and Retrospective Experiments
Moderator: P. Maechling Reporter: A. Llenos
11:05 Testing UCERF3-ETAS (PDF, 8.0MB) N. Field
11:15 Retrospective Canterbury Experiment M. Werner
11:25 Ensemble Model Earthquake Forecasts during the 2010-2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence (PDF, 171.6kB) M. Taroni
11:35 Organization of teh Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) T. Jordan
11:40 Dynamic Ensemble Model Testing and Global Earthquake Forecast Evaluation (PDF, 195.9kB) A. Strader
11:50 Panel Discussion: Epistemic Uncertainties in CSEP W. Marzocchi and D. Rhoades
13:00 Lunch  
  Evaluating Hazard Models
Moderator: W. Marzocchi Reporter: N. van der Elst
14:00 Testing PSHA against accelerometric data and intensities (PDF, 1.1MB) C. Beauval
14:15 GEM Hazard Modelling and Testing (PDF, 3.2MB) M. Pagani
14:30 Testing IPEs and Seismic Hazard Maps S. Mak
14:45 Discussion
  • How should GEM & USGS ground motion forecasts and hazard models be evaluated?
  • How can T&E results feed into hazard model updates?
15:30 Break  
  Induced Seismicity
Moderator: M. Page Reporter: M. Taroni
15:45 Earthquake Rate Models for Evolving Induced Seismicity Hazard in the Central and Eastern U.S. A. Llenos
15:55 Forecasting Next Year's Earthquakes in Oklahoma: Scientific and Public Policy Challenges B. Ellsworth
16:05 Discussion
  • CSEP Experiments of Induced Seismicity Forecasts
16:45 Wrap-Up and Next Steps M. Werner and D. Schorlemmer
17:00 Adjourn  


Return to 2015 SCEC Annual Meeting