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CSEP Workshop: Informing Earthquake Debates with CSEP Results

Conveners: Maximilian WernerThomas JordanWarner MarzocchiAndy Michael, and David Rhoades
Dates: September 9, 2017
Location: Palm Springs, CA
SCEC Award and Report: 17175

SUMMARY: The goal of this joint SCEC/USGS/CSEP workshop is to inform scientific debates about the predictability of earthquakes through CSEP results. Our objectives are to present available global CSEP results and to analyze their bearing on ongoing contentious debates in the seismological community. Targeted debates include: 1) How do magnitude distributions differ on-fault and off-fault? 2) Does the b-value vary in space and/or time? 3) How do strain rates map into earthquake rates? 4) Does the spatial distribution of small earthquakes help forecast large earthquakes? 5) What is the predictive skill of the Coulomb stress hypothesis? 6) What are maximum magnitudes on fault segments? 7) How does elastic rebound manifest itself in earthquake clustering? 8) How should ensemble models be constructed to provide optimal forecasts in an operational setting?

This focused, by invitation-only workshop will bring together members of the global CSEP community, SCEC scientists and IT personal and USGS representatives. The program will emphasize the CSEP nodes in California, New Zealand, Italy and Japan, and conclude with a session on future directions.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2017

09:00 - 09:10 Welcome, Introductions, Meeting Objectives (PDF, 108KB) Max Werner
  CSEP Results I: Evaluations of Long-Term Models
Moderator: David Rhoades; Reporter: Jiancang Zhuang
 
09:10 - 09:25 RELM Experiment, Part 2: Prospective and Retrospective Evaluation of Five-Year Earthquake Forecast Models for California (PDF, 1.5MB) Anne Strader
09:25 - 09:40 California: How much information is in any 5-year CSEP test?  Matt Gerstenberger
09:40 - 09:55 California: Evaluation of hybrid RELM models (PDF, 1.3MB) Max Werner
09:55 - 10:10 CSEP Italy evaluations of 5 and 10-year models and ensembles Matteo Taroni
10:10 - 10:25 CSEP Japan results of 3-month and 1-year testing class Hiroshi Tsuruoka
10:25 - 10:40 Break  
  CSEP Results I: Evaluations of Long-Term Models (continued)
Moderator: David Jackson; Reporter: Mark Stirling (PDF, 2MB)
 
10:40 - 10:55 New Zealand: Evaluation of 5-year and 3-month models (PDF, 694KB) David Rhoades
10:55 - 11:10 China CSEP testing center and its impact on China's earthquake forecasting Yongxiang Zhang
11:10 - 11:25 Ranking some global forecasts with the Kagan information score (PDF, 2.2MB) Peter Bird
11:25 - 11:40 Results from the high-resolution global experiment (PDF, 504KB) Max Werner
11:40 - 12:30 Group Discussion:
- What are the major conclusions?
- How can we further exploit available results?
- What are useful visualisations/summaries of test results?
- How can we facilitate cross-regional comparisons?
- How should results be communicated to the community? 
All
12:00 - 13:30 Lunch  
  CSEP Results II: Evaluations of Short/Medium-Term Models
Moderator: Matt Gerstenberger; Reporter: Nicholas van der Elst
 
13:30 - 13:45 Evaluation of physical, statistical and hybrid models during the 2010-2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence Camilla Cattania
13:45 - 14:00 California: preliminary 1-day model results (PDF, 607KB) Max Werner
14:00 - 14:15 CSEP Italy evaluations of 1-day models and ensembles Matteo Taroni
14:15 - 14:30 CSEP-Japan results of 1-day testing class and development of Kanto 3D earthquake forecast model Hiroshi Tsuruoka
14:45 - 15:00 3D spatial models for seismicity beneath greater Tokyo region Yosi Ogata
15:00 - 15:30 Discussion:
- What have we learned?
- How do the results inform earthquake debates?
- How does tectonic setting influence short-term clustering? 
 
15:30 - 16:00 Wrapping up CSEP 1.0 (PDF, 200KB)
Moderator: Phil Maechling; Reporter: Fabio Silva
 
  Brainstorming session:
- CSEP achievements thus far
- Further opportunities with available data
- Action plan
- Dissemination/publication plan
All
16:00 - 16:15  Break  
16:15 - 16:45 The next phase: CSEP 2.0
Moderator: Warner Marzocchi; Reporter: Ann Strader
 
  Imagining CSEP 2.0:
- Science challenges
- Mission statement
- Science priorities
- Model development
- Communication, education and dissemination strategy
- Services to users (e.g. governmental agencies)
All
  5 min pop-up presentations on future directions  
  Transitioning to CSEP 2.0: IT considerations (PDF, 220KB) Phil Maechling
  Exploring magnitude forecasts of the next earthquakes Yosi Ogata
  Short-term forecasts by foreshock discrimination Shunichi Nomura
  Thoughts on future CSEP developments Anne Strader for Danijel Schorlemmer
  Testing simulation-based forecasts (PDF, 554KB) David Rhoades
  Turing Style Tests for UCERF3 Synthetic Catalogs Nicholas van der Elst
  Group white paper writing:
What are the priorities for CSEP 2.0? 
Shunichi Nomura
16:45 - 17:00 Wrap-up­ Max Werner
17:00 Adjourn  

PARTICIPANTS

Peter Bird (UCLA)
Mike Blanpied (USGS)
Camilla Cattania (GFZ Potsdam)
Ned Field (USGS)*
Matt Gerstenberger (GNS)
David Jackson (UCLA)
Tom Jordan (SCEC)
Phil Maechling (SCEC)
Warner Marzocchi (INGV)
Shunichi Nomura (ISM)
Yosi Ogata (ISM)
David Rhoades (GNS)
Bruce Shaw (Columbia)
Fabio Silva (SCEC)
Mark Stirling (Dunedin)
Anne Strader (GFZ Potsdam)
Matteo Taroni (INGV)
Hiroshi Tsuruoka (ERI)
Nicholas van der Elst (USGS)
Max Werner (U Bristol)
Yongxiang Zhang (CEA)
Jiancang Zhuang (ERI)
 

*Participants to be confirmed