2024 California Community Models for Seismic Hazard Assessments Workshop

Summary

With funding from NSF, USGS and other sponsors, the Southern California Earthquake Center transitioned to become the Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC) in 2024. This created exciting research and collaboration opportunities that span the entire transform plate boundary, encompassing the Pacific and North American Plates from western Nevada to Baja California and Cape Mendocino.

SCEC, USGS, CGS, NASA, LLNL, CIG, and other academic partners hosted the California Community Earth Models for Seismic Hazard Assessments Workshop online on March 4–5, 2024, with more than 200 participants over two days. The workshop aimed to foster collaboration and establish a strong community around developing and maintaining community Earth models for California. These models describe the state of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle, including features like faults, elastic properties, and stress, which are crucial for understanding earthquake processes. The workshop emphasized the importance of “community” in these models, meaning they are publicly accessible and regularly updated through ongoing collaboration with the scientific community. Community Earth Models (CEMs) are critical inputs for various earthquake hazard assessment studies. Several organizations, such as the Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the Cascadia Regional Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT), are creating models that cover various regions of California. This workshop marks a crucial step toward building a collaborative and sustainable framework for developing and utilizing community Earth models for the entire state of California.

WORKSHOP OBJECTIVES. The workshop objectives were to

  1. Form a collaborative community by bringing together researchers and stakeholders interested in developing and updating Earth models for California.
  2. Promote sustainability to ensure the long-term development and maintenance of these models.
  3. Embrace multiscale approaches by considering Earth models at different scales for a comprehensive understanding.
  4. Assess existing models by evaluating the spatial coverage to identify gaps and regions where models could be merged.
  5. Define short and long-term goals to outline priorities and milestones for future development.

WORKSHOP REPORT. The workshop report summarizes key points from the presentations and discussions. It highlights three use cases driving the development of community Earth models, presents an inventory of existing community Earth models in California, summarizes techniques for integrating and merging models, discusses potential connections with the Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT), and explores the concept of “community” in community Earth models.

KEY POINTS & RECOMMENDATIONS. Below are the key points from the workshop presentations and discussions. See the workshop report for detailed recommendations and outcomes.

  • Making community Earth models accessible to users from a variety of technical backgrounds and disciplines is critical. This could be achieved by standardizing metadata, using standard scientific data formats, and providing standard interfaces for accessing each type of Earth model.
  • The long-term sustainability of community Earth models requires a community of core developers and contributors with well-defined workflows to incorporate contributions into the models with appropriate attribution.
  • The earthquake science community would benefit from consistent definitions of the state of the crust and upper mantle across the various types of community Earth models, extending the spatial coverage, reconciling discrepancies, and developing alternatives consistent with diverse constraints.
  • Propagating uncertainty through user applications requires quantitative assessments of epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability for Earth models, which are lacking for most existing models. These assessments can help prioritize regions for improvement based on uncertainty and seismic hazard and risk.
  • Coordination among organizations working on community Earth models across the western United States will improve user accessibility and facilitate the advancement of earthquake science.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk. Only the presentations for which SCEC has received permission to post publicly are included below.

March 4, 2024

08:00 - 08:15 Introduction (PDF, 1.8MB) Brad Aagaard 
  Use cases for California community models  
08:15 - 08:35 What scientific questions could we address with statewide community models?  Alice Gabriel
08:35 - 08:45 Discussion  
08:45 - 09:05 How could statewide community models improve seismic hazard assessments? Christine Goulet
09:05 - 09:15 Discussion  
09:15 - 09:35 How could carbon sequestration in California use community models? (PDF, 3.2MB) Dan Boyd
09:35 - 09:45 Discussion  
09:45 - 10:00 Break  
  Overview and inventory of existing community models   
10:00 - 10:10 Geologic models (PDF, 4.9MB) Russ Graymer / Mike Oskin
10:10 - 10:20 Fault models (PDF, 6.4MB) Scott Marshall / Alex Hatem
10:20 - 10:30 Rheology and thermal models (PDF, 9.0MB) Laurent Montesi / Wayne Thatcher
10:30 - 10:40 Stress models (PDF, 2.7MB) Jeanne Hardebeck / Karen Luttrell
10:40 - 10:50 Seismic velocity models Evan Hirakawa / Brad Aagaard  
10:50 - 11:00 Geodetic models (PDF, 2.7MB)
11:00 - 11:30 Discussion  
11:30 Adjourn until tomorrow  

March 5, 2024

08:00 - 08:20 Community models in the Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center (CRESCENT) (PDF, 3.2MB) Amanda Thomas
08:20 - 08:30 Discussion  
08:30 - 08:45 Breakouts: What does “community” in “community models” mean?
  1. What are the critical traits for a “community model” to be useful?
  2. What are the various roles people have in creating, maintaining, and using a “community model”?
  3. What are important factors for improving “community models”?
  4. How do we identify, communicate with, and involve community members?
All participants, are assigned and divided into the 13 Breakout Groups listed below.
08:45 - 09:15 Breakout Group Reports (1 slide each, 2-minutes per group) Breakout Group Leaders
09:15 - 09:30 Break  
  Techniques for integrating and embedding models   
09:30 - 09:40 Data integration: Geodetic models from GNSS + InSAR (PDF, 1.9MB) Mike Floyd / Katia Tymofyeyeva
09:40 - 09:50 Seamless embedding of seismic velocity models via integrated geologic models (PDF, 3.1MB) Brad Aagaard
09:50 - 10:00 Embedding high resolution models in regional models using blending (PDF, 2.5MB) Patricia Persaud
10:00 - 10:10 Embedding high resolution models in regional models using machine learning (PDF, 6.0MB) Yehuda Ben-Zion
10:10 - 10:20 Discussion  
10:20 - 10:40 Plenary discussion: Incentives for participating in community models  
10:40 - 11:00 Wrap-up discussion: Looking ahead  
11:00 Adjourn  

SCEC Community Earth Models (CEM) and Datasets

CEMs are collaborative platforms featuring community-contributed data, models, and tools for earthquake system analysis. They enable 3D visualization, data exploration, sharing, and integrated modeling. 

ABOUT CEM 

SCEC’s CEM leader Scott Marshall (Appalachian State) presents an overview of California Community Earth Models at the 2024 SCEC Annual Meeting

PARTICIPANTS
Breakout Group 1
Co-Moderators:
Julian Lozos (CSUN)
Scott Marshall (AppState)
Participants:
Rachel Abercrombie (Boston U)
Daniel Boyd (CGS)
Jianhua Gong (Indiana U)
Bill Hammond (UNR)
Yangfan Huang (U Oxford)
Han Kim (Parsons)
Jaehwi Kim (Changwon National U)
Yuexin Li (Caltech)
Donald Medwedeff (Independent)
craig nicholson (UCSB)
Bar Oryan (UCSD)
Patricia Persaud (U Arizona)
Sandra Razafimamonjy (IOGA)
Angela Stallone (INGV)
Joann Stock (Caltech)
Jessica Velasquez (Moody's RMS)
Alan Yong (USGS)
Breakout Group 2
Breakout Group 3
Breakout Group 4
Breakout Group 5
Co-Moderators:
Kathryn Materna (U Colorado)
Laurent Montesi (U Maryland)
Participants:
Linda Alatik (Linda Alatik Consulting)
Luciana Astiz (NSF)
Yehuda Ben-Zion (USC)
Robert Clayton (Caltech)
Alex Grant (USGS)
Suzanne Hecker (USGS)
Chun-Yu Ke (Pennsylvania State U)
Evan Marschall (UC Riverside)
David MCCALLEN (LBNL)
Evans Onyango (U Alaska Fairbanks)
Kathleen Steinbroner (CEA)
Karen SUNG (UC Berkeley)
Kirk Townsend (CGS)
Russ Van Dissen (GNS Science)
倩茹 王 (Donghua University)
Renyi Xu (
Donghua University)
Breakout Group 6
Breakout Group 7
Breakout Group 8
Breakout Group 9
Co-Moderators:
Marine Denolle (U Washington)
Hao Guo (U Wisconsin-Madison)
Participants:
Titi Anggono (NRIA, Indonesia)
Ashly Cabas (North Carolina State U)
Anindita Dash (Rice U)
Eric Dittmer (Dittmer Consulting)
Russell Graymer (USGS)
Javier Ojeda (U de Chile & IPGP)
Manitriniaina Ravoson (IOGA)
Emel Seyhan (Moodys RMS)
Brian Swanson (CGS)
Mei-Hui Su (SCEC)
Wayne Thatcher (USGS)
Molly Zebker (U Texas at Austin)
Breakout Group 10
Breakout Group 11
Breakout Group 12
Breakout Group 13
Co-Moderators:
Eric Fielding (JPL)
Participants:
Niloufar Abolfathian (OAI)
Esam Abraham (USC)
James Conrad (USGS)
Michael DeFrisco (CGS)
Humberto Alfonso García Montano (CIACE, UNAN-Managua)
Eric Geist (USGS)
Lorraine Hwang (UC Davis CIG)
Mike Oskin (UC Davis)
Andriniaina Tahina Rakotoarisoa (IOGA, Madagascar)
Tsiriandrimanana Rakotondraibe (IOGA)
Andry Mampionona Ramarolahy (IOGA)
Cliff Thurber (U Wisconsin-Madison)
Michael Turner (CEC)

SCEC Activities Code of Conduct

The Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC) fosters a diverse and inclusive community where everyone feels safe, productive, and welcome. We expect all participants in SCEC-supported events to uphold this commitment by adhering to the SCEC Activities Code of Conduct.

SCEC Meetings and Workshops

The SCEC Annual Meeting brings together 400-500 participants worldwide to share breakthroughs, assess progress, and chart a collaborative path for earthquake science. All of the Center activities are presented, analyzed, and woven into a set of priorities for SCEC to pursue in the future.

Applications are currently closed

Questions? Contact us.