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SCEC Workshop on Predictive Skill Across Tectonic Settings and Planning CSEP 2.0

Conveners: Maximilian Werner (chair), Thomas JordanWarner MarzocchiAndy Michael, David Rhoades, and Hiroshi Tsuruoka
Date: September 8, 2018
Location: Palm Springs, CA
Participation: 30 maximum (by invitation, contact conveners)
SCEC Award: 18147

SUMMARY: The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is holding a 1-day workshop with representatives from the SCEC community, the global CSEP community, the USGS and other international government agencies responsible for informing the public about seismic hazards. CSEP is planning a new phase of earthquake forecast experiments (“CSEP2.0”) that expand the current model and data space, placing new demands on CSEP software. A major focus of the workshop will be the development of experiments that enable insightful evaluations of recent models, e.g. the USGS models for operational earthquake forecasting, as well as tailored experiments for specific scientific questions. Discussion topics will include: blueprints for new retrospective and prospective experiments, required methods for model evaluation and comparison, CSEP software design, international collaboration and software development, CSEP1.0 data and legacy.

Presentation slides may be downloaded by clicking the links following the title. PLEASE NOTE: Files are the author’s property. They may contain unpublished or preliminary information and should only be used while viewing the talk.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2018

08:30 - 09:00 Workshop Check-In  
  Session 1: Overview, Motivation, and Desired Outcomes  
09:00 - 09:10 Welcome and Overview of Workshop Objectives (PDF, 257KB) Max Werner
09:10 - 09:20 Status of CSEP Operations and Plans Bill Savran
09:20 - 09:30 SCEC perspectives of CSEP2 objectives (PDF, 623KB) John Vidale
09:30 - 09:40 USGS perspectives on CSEP2 objectives Andy Michael
09:40 - 09:50 International collaboration: European RISE proposal Max Werner
09:50 - 10:20 Discussion:
  • CSEP2 priorities?
  • CSEP software development in a multi-developer environment: common, shared, inter-operable or separate software?
  • International collaboration: who does what?
  • Common CSEP software design principles
  • CSEP1 legacy
All
10:20 - 10:30 Break  
  Session 2: Planning new CSEP experiments I  
10:30 - 10:40 Experiments for Reasenberg-Jones models Jeanne Hardebeck
10:40 - 10:50 Experiments for Fast-ETAS Nicholas van der Elst
10:50 - 11:00 Experiments for UCERF3-ETAS Ned Field
11:00 - 11:10 Testing forecasts specified as synthetic catalogs (PDF, 193KB) David Rhoades
11:10 - 12:00 Discussion:
  • Defining forecast formats
  • CSEP IT requirements for forecast simulations?
  • Authoritative data sets
  • Statistical tests: Turing tests, likelihood tests, consistency tests
  • External (OEF) forecasts in CSEP, code versioning & reproducibility
  • Type examples
All
12:00 - 13:00 Lunch  
  Session 3: Planning new CSEP experiments II  
13:00 - 13:10 Perspectives from CSEP New Zealand (PDF, 276KB) Matt Gerstenberger
13:10 - 13:20 Perspectives from CSEP Japan Naoshi Hirata
13:20 - 13:30 Perspectives from CSEP China (PDF, 5.1MB) Angie (Yongxian) Zhang
13:30 - 13:40 Perspectives from CSEP Italy Max Werner
13:40 - 14:20 Discussion:
  • Tailored experiments for specific scientific hypotheses (b-values, foreshocks, etc): forecast formats, data sets, tests
  • Continued discussion of previous items
All
14:20 - 14:30 Break  
  Session 4: Testing Forecasts of Finite Ruptures on Faults  
14:30 - 14:40 Status of RSQSim forecasting Tom Jordan
14:40 - 14:50 Experiments for testing finite rupture forecasts Dave Jackson
14:50 - 15:20 Discussion:
  • Solutions to the association problem
  • Experiments to compare model forecasts with model output
  • Testing UCERF3 fault-based forecasts
All
15:20 - 15:30 Break  
  Session 5: Prototyping experiments  
15:30 - 16:30 Group 1: Testing synthetic-catalog forecasts
Group 2: Testing finite rupture forecasts (including against model simulations)
Group 3: Other experiments (b-values, foreshocks etc)
Group 4: Software design, international collaboration, external forecasts
All
16:30 - 17:00 Discussion: Group feedback All
17:00 - 17:30 Discussion: Workshop recommendations and future plans All
17:30 Workshop Adjourns  

PARTICIPANTS

Camilla Cattania (Stanford)
Ray Chiou (NAVFAC)
Matt Gerstenberger (GNS Science)
Jacquelyn Gilchrist (USC)
Jeanne Hardebeck (USGS)
Wei Hua (CEA/China)
David Jackson (UCLA)
Tom Jordan (USC)
Andrea Llenos (USGS)
Guojie Meng (CEA/China)
Andy Michael (USGS)
Negar Nazari (Berkshire Hathaway)
Yosihiko Ogata (ISM)
Morgan Page (USGS)
David Rhoades (GNS Science)
William Savran (SCEC/USC)
Bruce Shaw (Columbia)
Nicholas van der Elst (USGS)
John Vidale (USC)
Wuxing Wang (CEA/China)
Max Werner (Bristol)
Yanqiang Wu (CEA/China)
Xiaodong Zhang (CEA/China)
Yongxian (Angie) Zhang (CENC) Jiancang Zhuang (ISM/Japan)

 

This workshop is held prior to the 2018 SCEC Annual Meeting.